Climatology

About This Data

This climatology analysis reveals seasonal patterns in billion-dollar disasters from 1980 to 2025. Data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) shows how different disaster types cluster throughout the year, providing critical insights for preparedness and risk management.

The monthly climatology chart displays the distribution of 7 disaster types across all 12 months, while the probability chart shows the likelihood of experiencing one or more billion-dollar events in any given month. Filter by state and year range to explore regional and temporal variations in disaster seasonality.

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Monthly Climatology of Billion-Dollar Disasters

The chart below shows the total duration of each billion-dollar disaster. Events that span multiple months are counted in each of the months in which they occur.

Drought Flooding Freeze Severe Storm Tropical Cyclone Wildfire Winter Storm

Monthly Probability of Billion-Dollar Disasters

The probability chart shows the likelihood of at least one billion-dollar disaster occurring in each month, based on historical records. This can help identify months with higher risk of extreme events.

Climate Insights & Scientific Analysis

Seasonal Clustering of Extreme Events: The data reveals distinct seasonal patterns in billion-dollar disasters. Severe storms and tornadoes peak in spring (April-June) when temperature contrasts between air masses are greatest. Tropical cyclones concentrate in late summer through fall (August-October), following warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Winter storms, as expected, cluster in December-February. This seasonality reflects fundamental atmospheric dynamics and provides a basis for risk planning.

Accelerating Disaster Frequency: Since 1980, the annual number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters has increased significantly. The 1980s averaged about 3 events per year; recent years regularly exceed 20+ events annually. While improved detection and reporting contribute to this trend, scientific consensus attributes much of this increase to climate change amplifying the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.

Drought: The Silent Billion-Dollar Disaster: Unlike sudden-onset events, droughts develop gradually but cause immense economic damage. Summer months (June-August) show the highest drought impacts, affecting agriculture, water resources, and energy production. Climate projections indicate increased drought frequency and severity in the American Southwest and Great Plains as warming temperatures increase evaporative demand.

Tropical Cyclone Intensification: The probability data shows tropical cyclones are concentrated in a narrow window (August-October), but their economic impact has grown disproportionately. Research indicates that while overall hurricane frequency may not increase dramatically, the proportion of major hurricanes (Category 4-5) is rising. Warmer ocean waters provide more energy for rapid intensification, a phenomenon that challenges evacuation planning and emergency response.

Emerging Risk: Compound and Cascading Events: A growing concern in climate science is the occurrence of compound events—multiple hazards occurring simultaneously or in sequence. For example, drought conditions increase wildfire risk, or back-to-back hurricanes strain recovery resources. The climatology shows overlap periods where multiple disaster types have elevated probability, suggesting these compound scenarios will become more common as climate variability increases.

Geographic Concentration of Risk: Certain regions face disproportionate exposure to billion-dollar disasters. The Gulf Coast and Southeast are vulnerable to tropical cyclones and flooding; the Great Plains to severe storms and drought; California to wildfires and drought. This geographic clustering of risk has significant implications for insurance markets, infrastructure investment, and climate adaptation strategies at the state and local level.

Data Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters dataset. Analysis based on CPI-adjusted costs from 1980-present. These insights reflect peer-reviewed climate science and observed trends in extreme weather events.